This cycle vs history
Every halving reset to day zero and priced as a multiple of the halving-day price, on a log scale. It lines up where this cycle sits against the three before it — tap a cycle to mute it.
Day 764 since the 2024 halving: this cycle is up 1.2× from the halving price. At the same point, the previous three cycles averaged 13× (range 2.6×–26×) — each cycle’s gains have come in smaller than the last. Past cycles are context, not a promise.
At $76,620, BTC trades -5% versus its 200-day average ($80,547). Readings above 2.4× have historically marked expensive zones, below 0.8× accumulation zones.
BTC trades 1.25× its 200-week moving average ($61,345). Cycle bottoms have historically formed near 1× and tops near 5×.
The 111-day average is 38% of the Pi-Cycle top line (2× the 350-day average). A crossover to 100% or above has coincided with prior cycle tops; this is not a forecast.
Daily issuance value is 0.81× its 365-day average (Puell Multiple). Readings below ~0.5× have marked miner-capitulation lows, above ~4× cycle tops.
BTC is 39% below its all-time high of $124,824 ($76,620 now).
~93,660 blocks (~650 days) to the next halving at block 1,050,000 (est. 2028), when the block subsidy falls to 1.5625 BTC.
At $76,620, BTC trades 0.97× its Bull Market Support Band ($78,961, the higher of the 20-week SMA and 21-week EMA). Prices holding above the band have historically marked bull phases and below it bear phases; this describes position, not direction.
The 14-week RSI reads 45 of 100. Below 30 is oversold and above 80 overbought on this timeframe; a single momentum reading measures pressure, not a turning point.
230 days have passed since the all-time-high close of $124,824 on 2025-10-06. This counts elapsed time only and says nothing about what comes next.