Bull Market Support Band
Is the bull-market floor holding?
At $82,002, BTC trades 1.08× its Bull Market Support Band ($75,750, the higher of the 20-week SMA and 21-week EMA). Prices holding above the band have historically marked bull phases and below it bear phases; this describes position, not direction.
History
Off daily closes through 2026-10-18 (btc-history.json, weekly automated refresh); the current reading stitches the live spot when available.
Why we track it, how it's computed, and related reading
Why we track it · The 20-week SMA / 21-week EMA pair tracked every bull run's pullback floor since 2017 — a useful trend gauge. The other side · Only meaningful IN a bull market — in a bear it's ceiling, not floor, and it whipsaws at transitions.
Price relative to the Bull Market Support Band — the higher of the 20-week SMA and 21-week EMA — a widely watched trend floor.
Trace this number
| Latest close | $82,002 | as of 2026-10-18 |
| 20-week SMA (140d) | $70,982 | as of 2026-06-01→2026-10-18 |
| 21-week EMA (147d) | $75,750 | as of 2026-05-25→2026-10-18 |
| close ÷ max(20-week SMA, 21-week EMA) — the band is the EMA today | = 1.08× | |
The arithmetic is auditable; whether it means anything is the “other side” above. Levels are the weekly file’s completed closes — the reading stitches the live spot when available, so an intraday value can differ.
How it's computed
The band is the greater of the 20-week (140-day) simple moving average and the 21-week (147-day) exponential moving average. Divide the daily close by that band level. Holding above the band has historically marked bull phases and below it bear phases; this describes position, not direction. Computed off daily closes through the latest row in btc-history.json — a price-only series refreshed weekly by an automated, validation-gated pipeline, so the tail can trail the live market by up to a week between refreshes. The current reading stitches the live spot when available.
Evidence basis · ≈2 full cycles as a pullback floor (widely watched only since ~2017)