200-Week MA Multiple
How far is price from its four-year floor?
BTC trades 1.23× its 200-week moving average ($66,750). Cycle bottoms have historically formed near 1×, while tops have crested lower each cycle — roughly 15× in 2013, down to about 6× in 2021.
History
Off daily closes through 2026-10-18 (btc-history.json, weekly automated refresh); the current reading stitches the live spot when available.
Why we track it, how it's computed, and related reading
Why we track it · The 200-week average has historically marked where full cycles bottomed — the slowest anchor we track. The other side · Four data points of 'historically'. A floor that held four times is a pattern, not a promise.
Price relative to the 200-week (1,400-day) moving average — a slow cycle baseline that has historically tracked major bottoms and tops.
Trace this number
| Latest close | $82,002 | as of 2026-10-18 |
| 200-week SMA (1,400d) | $66,750 | as of 2022-12-19→2026-10-18 |
| close ÷ 200-week SMA | = 1.23× | |
The arithmetic is auditable; whether it means anything is the “other side” above. Levels are the weekly file’s completed closes — the reading stitches the live spot when available, so an intraday value can differ.
How it's computed
Divide the daily close by the 200-week (1,400-day) simple moving average of the close. Computed off daily closes through the latest row in btc-history.json — a price-only series refreshed weekly by an automated, validation-gated pipeline, so the tail can trail the live market by up to a week between refreshes. The current reading stitches the live spot when available. The series begins once 1,400 days of history exist.
Evidence basis · ≈3 cycle bottoms observed (it needs 1,400 days, so it only exists from ~2014)
Band guide
Read it alongside
From the intel desk
Dispatches from the desks that watch this instrument — editorial context, not signals.