BTChub · Methodology & About
How this is built, and what it means
Every number here comes with an interpretation and a limit. This page lays out what BTChub is, exactly how each indicator is computed, what the data can and can't tell you, and how we're paid.
where the numbers come from · and how fresh they are
- daily closesas of 2026-10-18 · weekly (mondays, utc)every price indicator, the chart, the wire, what changedpublic/btc-history.json · Coin Metrics reference rates, then Kraken daily closes (midnight UTC)
- network fileas of 2026-10-19 · weekly (mondays, utc)hashrate, difficulty, hashprice, production cost, the cost labpublic/btc-difficulty.json · mempool.space
- dispatchesas of 2026-10-22 · as publishedthe map's links, topics, watchlist, threadscontent/articles.js: BTChub originals + pieces curated from OPNorange (per-article origin field)
- live spot + mempoollive · read time (cached ~20–60s)the live ticker, fees, fee-inclusive hashprice, block heartbeatedge proxies /api/price and /api/mempool → exchanges, mempool.space
What it is
Bitcoin, energy and macro — with interpretation
BTChub is OPNorange’s Bitcoin desk: the asset, the energy that produces it, and the macro around it — every indicator with a plain-language read and a stated limit. Security / OpSec live on OPNorange; acting on a reading is the hand-off to DCA Butler.
The indicators
How they're computed
Every indicator is derived analytically from a single input: a daily BTC/USD closing-price series. The history is the Coin Metrics community reference rate through May 2026, extended with Kraken's public daily closes since (both midnight-UTC marks; the pipeline checks their agreement on every run) — refreshed weekly. From that one series we compute everything: moving averages, the running all-time high, drawdown, and the analytic issuance schedule behind the Puell Multiple and the halving clock. There is no proprietary feed and no black box; the math is the same code that renders each chart.
One wrinkle worth stating plainly: the historical file is refreshed weekly by an automated pipeline (validated for gaps, seams, and implausible values before anything is written), so it can trail the live market by up to a week or so between refreshes. To keep the current reading honest, we stitch a live spot price onto the tail of the series before computing the latest value. The shape of history is the file; the last point is live.
Drawdown regimes. Several charts shade Bitcoin's major drawdown eras — every fall of 40% or more from an all-time high, from the day the peak was set to the day a new high closed the episode — the way economic charts shade recessions. One definition drives all of it (the same episodes as the table on Drawdowns & recoveries), so the shading and the table can never disagree. The honest wrinkle: regime boundaries are hindsight-by-construction — a peak is only known to have been the peak, and a regime only known to have closed, after the fact. The daily underwater values themselves use only the running peak (no lookahead), and the current regime, if any, is labeled open.
All 9 indicators, one line each
The Mayer Multiple is Bitcoin's price divided by its 200-day moving average — a simple gauge of how stretched price is from its long trend.
Price relative to the 200-week (1,400-day) moving average — a slow cycle baseline that has historically tracked major bottoms and tops.
The Pi-Cycle Top compares the 111-day average to twice the 350-day average; a crossover to 100% has coincided with prior cycle tops.
The Puell Multiple measures daily issuance value against its yearly average — a proxy for miner-revenue pressure.
Drawdown is how far the current price sits below its running all-time high — a plain measure of how deep the market is off its peak.
The halving countdown tracks the days remaining until the next scheduled block-subsidy halving.
Price relative to the Bull Market Support Band — the higher of the 20-week SMA and 21-week EMA — a widely watched trend floor.
The 14-week Relative Strength Index measures medium-term momentum on a 0–100 scale.
Days since the all-time high counts the elapsed time since the last record close — a measure of cycle age, nothing more.
Each indicator page carries its full computation, band guide, and the history chart.
The long-run models
Three lenses on where price sits
Alongside the point-in-time indicators, three long-run lenses put a single price in context. Each is built from the same daily-close series — no extra data, no black box — and each comes with a plain statement of what it can't do.
Log price vs log age as a straight line — price grows as a fixed power of days since genesis. Corridor: 0.42× to 4× that fair line. Deviation is price ÷ fair − 1.
The catch · A descriptive fit to the past, not a law. Long-run context, not a target.
A separate, slightly steeper log fit, fanned into seven affordability bands (deep-value blue → bubble red).
The catch · Folk-famous and unscientific — a mood ring, not a signal. Not the same fair line as the power-law corridor.
The market instruments
Knowing the ride
Drawdowns, volatility and supply — history and arithmetic, never a forecast.
Each day's close vs the running ATH, plus every −40%+ episode: depth, time down, time back.
The catch · Past recoveries are survivorship, not a law.
Annualized stdev of daily log returns over 30- and 90-day windows.
The catch · Backward-looking. Calm is not a safety guarantee.
Protocol issuance: halvings every 210,000 blocks → supply, %-mined, inflation rate.
The catch · Issued ≠ spendable (lost coins). Future dates are estimates; heights are exact.
The playbook
About you, not the asset
Horizons and the DCA time machine — a replay of the record, never a projection.
Every entry day held 1–8 years: share in profit, median, worst — all-history and 2017+.
The catch · Overlapping entries aren't independent; survivorship is the big assumption.
Recurring buy replayed against weekly closes vs the same total as a day-one lump sum.
The catch · No fees/taxes modelled. One past, not a forecast.
Network & energy
The chain's physical layer
Weekly mining snapshots from mempool.space — as-of, not live.
Protocol target so blocks arrive ~every ten minutes; read from mempool.space.
The catch · Moves only each ~2-week epoch — a floor on effort, not attack cost.
Inferred from difficulty and recent block times (mempool.space), in EH/s.
The catch · Statistical estimate; short windows are noisy.
Subsidy × blocks/day × price ÷ hashrate, in USD/PH/s/day.
The catch · Subsidy-only (no fees); difficulty leg can be a week old.
Electricity cost to mine one BTC from hashrate × assumed J/TH × $/kWh, as a band.
The catch · Assumptions stated on the page; electricity only — a soft floor, not CBECI.
Data & limits
What this can — and can't — tell you
- Price only. The history is a daily close series and nothing else — there is no on-chain data (no UTXO age, realized cap, exchange flows, or miner balances). Indicators framed around issuance use the deterministic protocol schedule, not observed block data.
- Up to about a week of lag on the file. The series refreshes weekly (Coin Metrics history extended by Kraken daily closes, behind hard validation gates); a live spot is stitched onto the tail for the current reading, but everything before it is as-of the file.
- Position, not prediction. These indicators describe where price sits relative to its own trend and history. They are not forecasts and have no view on what happens next.
- Not financial advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold. It's context for your own decision.
How it's built
Sources, pipelines, stack
Built for curious readers who want the reasoning, not a tip. Educational, not financial advice. Daily closes live in one public file; network readings come from mempool.space; live price and fees are edge-fetched with as-of fallbacks. Scheduled GitHub Actions refresh the data behind typecheck, tests and a production build — a failed gate leaves the site unchanged. The stack is Next.js (static) on Cloudflare Pages, Recharts + SVG charts, self-hosted fonts, no analytics, a strict CSP.
Open · disclosed · no tracking
You don't have to take our word for it
This is free, and it stays free two ways, both stated up front. Some outbound links to exchanges are affiliate links — if you sign up through one, we may earn a referral fee at no cost to you. And the project runs on value-for-value: if it's useful, you can support it directly. That's the whole model. There is no paywall and no data being sold, because we don't collect the data to sell.
We don't track you. No analytics scripts, no third-party trackers, no cookies following you around — and you can confirm it in ten seconds: open your browser's Network tab and reload. Every request this page makes goes to one origin; the fonts are self-hosted, there are no third-party runtime requests, and a Content-Security-Policy — visible in this page's response headers — confines every request to this origin, so the browser enforces it, not our word. It's the same honesty this whole site runs on: don't trust a claim you can check.
And the numbers are reproducible, not just assertable. Every indicator is computed from one public file — the daily-close series — with the exact formula shown on each indicator page (“trace this number”). Take the data, run the same arithmetic, get our number.