OPN Intel · Methodology & About
How this is built, and what it means
Every number here comes with an interpretation and a limit. This page lays out what OPN Intel is, exactly how each indicator is computed, what the data can and can't tell you, and how we're paid.
What it is
Bitcoin intelligence, with interpretation
OPN Intel is a Bitcoin intelligence surface that pairs the raw numbers with what they mean. Most dashboards hand you a value and stop. Here, every computable indicator ships with a plain-language read of where it sits, the band it falls in, and the limit on how far to trust it — so you leave knowing not just the number, but its context.
Reading the state of the market is only half the job; the other half is acting on it. That's the hand-off to DCA Butler, our sister tool for turning a read into a plan — backtest a dollar-cost-average strategy, size a stack, and project it forward. The hub tells you what the number means; Butler helps you do something about it.
The indicators
How they're computed
Every indicator is derived analytically from a single input: a daily BTC/USD closing-price series. The history comes from the Coin Metrics community reference rate — an openly published daily close — refreshed weekly. From that one series we compute everything: moving averages, the running all-time high, drawdown, and the analytic issuance schedule behind the Puell Multiple and the halving clock. There is no proprietary feed and no black box; the math is the same code that renders each chart.
One wrinkle worth stating plainly: the historical file lags the live market by roughly 30 days. To keep the current reading honest, we stitch a live spot price onto the tail of the series before computing the latest value — which is why a card can read “live” even though the long history behind it trails by about a month. The shape of history is the file; the last point is live.
The Mayer Multiple is Bitcoin's price divided by its 200-day moving average — a simple gauge of how stretched price is from its long trend.
Price relative to the 200-week (1,400-day) moving average — a slow cycle baseline that has historically tracked major bottoms and tops.
The Pi-Cycle Top compares the 111-day average to twice the 350-day average; a crossover to 100% has coincided with prior cycle tops.
The Puell Multiple measures daily issuance value against its yearly average — a proxy for miner-revenue pressure.
Drawdown is how far the current price sits below its running all-time high — a plain measure of how deep the market is off its peak.
The halving countdown tracks the days remaining until the next scheduled block-subsidy halving.
Price relative to the Bull Market Support Band — the higher of the 20-week SMA and 21-week EMA — a widely watched trend floor.
The 14-week Relative Strength Index measures medium-term momentum on a 0–100 scale.
Days since the all-time high counts the elapsed time since the last record close — a measure of cycle age, nothing more.
Each indicator page carries its full computation, band guide, and the history chart.
The long-run models
Three lenses on where price sits
Alongside the point-in-time indicators, three long-run lenses put a single price in context. Each is built from the same daily-close series — no extra data, no black box — and each comes with a plain statement of what it can't do.
Over Bitcoin's whole life, log price has tracked a straight line against log age — price grows as a fixed power of days since genesis. We fit that line and draw a corridor from 0.42× (the historical floor) to 4× (the historical ceiling) around it. The deviation you see is just price ÷ fair − 1.
The catch · It's a descriptive fit to the past, not a law. The corridor is drawn from the same history it's judged against, and nothing forces the next decade to obey it — long-run context, not a target.
The same regression, fanned into seven affordability bands by fixed log-price offsets — deep-value blue at the bottom, bubble red at the top. We tuned the offsets against the real price residuals so band occupancy mirrors history: the deepest ~2% of days land in Fire Sale, blow-off tops in Bubble, most of the time in the middle.
The catch · It's folk-famous and deliberately unscientific — a colour mood-ring laid over a curve. The band you're standing in is a vivid way to read the corridor, not a signal and not advice.
Each halving is reset to day zero and price replotted as a multiple of the halving-day price, so the four epochs line up on one axis. It shows how the current cycle is tracking against the three before it — and that each cycle's gains have so far come in smaller than the last.
The catch · Four cycles is a tiny sample and past cycles are not a forecast. Diminishing returns is a pattern, not a promise, and aligning by halving is one choice among several.
Data & limits
What this can — and can't — tell you
- Price only. The history is a daily close series and nothing else — there is no on-chain data (no UTXO age, realized cap, exchange flows, or miner balances). Indicators framed around issuance use the deterministic protocol schedule, not observed block data.
- About a 30-day lag on the file. The community reference feed trails the live market by roughly a month; a live spot is stitched onto the tail for the current reading, but everything before it is as-of the file.
- Position, not prediction. These indicators describe where price sits relative to its own trend and history. They are not forecasts and have no view on what happens next.
- Not financial advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold. It's context for your own decision.
How we're paid
Disclosed funding, no tracking
This is free, and it stays free two ways, both stated up front. Some outbound links to exchanges are affiliate links — if you sign up through one, we may earn a referral fee at no cost to you. And the project runs on value-for-value: if it's useful, you can support it directly. That's the whole model. There is no paywall and no data being sold, because we don't collect the data to sell.
We don't track you. No analytics scripts, no third-party trackers, no cookies following you around. The methodology on this page is the actual methodology — the computations are open and the funding is disclosed, so you can trust the numbers without having to take our word for it.