Mayer Multiple
Is price stretched against its own trend?
Why we track it · A 200-day anchor is the cheapest stretch detector we know — one division, no tuning. The other side · A habit, not a law. It has been early, late, and wrong before; extremes mark position, never timing.
The Mayer Multiple is Bitcoin's price divided by its 200-day moving average — a simple gauge of how stretched price is from its long trend.
At $77,682, BTC trades +12% versus its 200-day average ($69,373). Readings above 2.4× have historically marked expensive zones, below 0.8× accumulation zones.
Trace this number
| Latest close | $77,682 | as of 2026-08-30 |
| 200-day SMA | $69,373 | as of 2026-02-12→2026-08-30 |
| close ÷ 200-day SMA | = 1.12× | |
The arithmetic is auditable; whether it means anything is the “other side” above. Levels are the weekly file’s completed closes — the reading stitches the live spot when available, so an intraday value can differ.
History
Off daily closes through 2026-08-30 (btc-history.json, weekly automated refresh); the current reading stitches the live spot when available.
How it's computed
Take the daily close and divide it by the 200-day simple moving average of the close (Computed off daily closes through the latest row in btc-history.json — a price-only series refreshed weekly by an automated, validation-gated pipeline, so the tail can trail the live market by up to a week between refreshes. The current reading stitches the live spot when available. The series begins once 200 days of history exist.)
Evidence basis · full daily history since 2010 — but the four bands are eyeballed, not fit
Band guide
From the intel desk
Dispatches from the desks that watch this instrument — editorial context, not signals.