OPN Intel
AS-OF
BTC$77,682MAYER1.12×200W1.20×PI-CYCLE41%DRAWDOWN-38%PUELL0.94×W-RSI56BMSB1.11×
AS OF 2026-08-30
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Mayer Multiple

Is price stretched against its own trend?

Why we track it · A 200-day anchor is the cheapest stretch detector we know — one division, no tuning. The other side · A habit, not a law. It has been early, late, and wrong before; extremes mark position, never timing.

The Mayer Multiple is Bitcoin's price divided by its 200-day moving average — a simple gauge of how stretched price is from its long trend.

1.12×Fair valueas of 2026-08-30

At $77,682, BTC trades +12% versus its 200-day average ($69,373). Readings above 2.4× have historically marked expensive zones, below 0.8× accumulation zones.

Trace this number
Latest close$77,682as of 2026-08-30
200-day SMA$69,373as of 2026-02-12→2026-08-30
close ÷ 200-day SMA= 1.12×

The arithmetic is auditable; whether it means anything is the “other side” above. Levels are the weekly file’s completed closes — the reading stitches the live spot when available, so an intraday value can differ.

Backtest it in the Time Machine →

History

Off daily closes through 2026-08-30 (btc-history.json, weekly automated refresh); the current reading stitches the live spot when available.

How it's computed

Take the daily close and divide it by the 200-day simple moving average of the close (Computed off daily closes through the latest row in btc-history.json — a price-only series refreshed weekly by an automated, validation-gated pipeline, so the tail can trail the live market by up to a week between refreshes. The current reading stitches the live spot when available. The series begins once 200 days of history exist.)

Source bundled daily closes (public/btc-history.json)Processing midnight-UTC daily closes, completed days onlyLast updated 2026-08-30Next expected ~2026-09-06Mayer Multiple” in the glossary →

Evidence basis · full daily history since 2010 — but the four bands are eyeballed, not fit

Band guide

< 0.80×Undervalued
0.80×–1.20×Fair value
1.20×–2.40×Elevated
≥ 2.40×Historically expensive

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