OPN Intel · Power Law
Bitcoin Power Law Chart
Over its whole life, Bitcoin’s price has tracked a straight line on a log–log plot: price grows as a fixed power of its age. That trend line is the “fair value,” and price oscillates inside a wide corridor around it. It’s a descriptive long-run fit, not a prediction — the past pattern need not hold, and it says nothing about where price goes next month. Flip to the Rainbow lens to see that same curve fanned into its seven affordability bands.
Power Law: A single fair-value line — price grows as a fixed power of Bitcoin's age — with a floor→ceiling corridor around it.
Where would your entry sit?
Drop your average buy price onto the same model. It reads off position, not a prediction — where that entry lands versus fair value and the rainbow bands.
Enter a price to place it on the model.
How to read it
- The fair line is the power-law trend — the value the model considers “on trend” for Bitcoin’s age at each date.
- The corridor spans the historical floor (0.42× fair) to the ceiling (4× fair). Cycle bottoms have hugged the floor; blow-off tops have brushed the ceiling. Price living inside the band is normal.
- The halving markers flag the four supply halvings (2012, 2016, 2020, 2024). Hover any point for the exact price, fair value, and how far above or below trend it sat.
- The Rainbow toggle re-draws the same history as seven color bands — deep-value blue at the bottom, bubble red at the top. It’s a beloved but unscientific overlay; the band you land in is a mood ring, not a signal.