OPN Intel · Power Law
Bitcoin Power Law Chart
Over its whole life, Bitcoin’s price has tracked a straight line on a log–log plot: price grows as a fixed power of its age. That trend line is the “fair value,” and price oscillates inside a wide corridor around it. It’s a descriptive long-run fit, not a prediction — the past pattern need not hold, and it says nothing about where price goes next month. Flip to the Rainbow lens for a second, slightly steeper log fit — its own curve, not this one — fanned into seven affordability bands.
Power Law: A single fair-value line — price grows as a fixed power of Bitcoin's age — with a floor→ceiling corridor around it.
Where would your entry sit?
Drop your average buy price onto the same model. It reads off position, not a prediction — where that entry lands versus fair value and the rainbow bands.
Enter a price to place it on the model.
How to read it
- The fair line is the power-law trend — the value the model considers “on trend” for Bitcoin’s age at each date.
- The corridor spans the historical floor (0.42× fair) to the ceiling (4× fair). Cycle bottoms since 2011 have hugged the floor — 2015 and 2022 both kissed ~0.44× — though the infant 2010 market broke straight through it, dipping to ~0.28× before the fit settled. Early manias blew through the ceiling too — the 2011 top hit ~21× fair, 2013 ~13×, 2017 ~7× — and each cycle’s overshoot has been smaller than the last; the 2021 top (~3.7×) was the first to stay inside. The corridor bounds the modern era, not the wild early years.
- The halving markers flag the four supply halvings (2012, 2016, 2020, 2024). Hover any point for the exact price, fair value, and how far above or below trend it sat.
- The Rainbow toggle re-draws the same history as seven color bands — deep-value blue at the bottom, bubble red at the top. It’s a beloved but unscientific overlay; the band you land in is a mood ring, not a signal.