Pi-Cycle Top
Are we near a cycle top, by the one signal famous for calling them?
The 111-day average is 48% of the Pi-Cycle top line (2× the 350-day average). A crossover to 100% or above has coincided with prior cycle tops; this is not a forecast.
History
Off daily closes through 2026-10-18 (btc-history.json, weekly automated refresh); the current reading stitches the live spot when available.
Why we track it, how it's computed, and related reading
Why we track it · The 111-day / 2×350-day cross flagged past cycle peaks within days — worth watching for that reason alone. The other side · Curve-fit to those very peaks. It is famous BECAUSE it fit history; nothing binds the future to it.
The Pi-Cycle Top compares the 111-day average to twice the 350-day average; a crossover to 100% has coincided with prior cycle tops.
Trace this number
| 111-day SMA | $73,027 | as of 2026-06-30→2026-10-18 |
| 350-day SMA | $76,801 | as of 2025-11-03→2026-10-18 |
| 111-day SMA ÷ (2 × 350-day SMA) | = 48% | |
The arithmetic is auditable; whether it means anything is the “other side” above. Levels are the weekly file’s completed closes — the reading stitches the live spot when available, so an intraday value can differ.
How it's computed
Divide the 111-day simple moving average of the close by twice the 350-day simple moving average, expressed as a percentage. A reading of 100% is the classic Pi-Cycle crossover. Computed off daily closes through the latest row in btc-history.json — a price-only series refreshed weekly by an automated, validation-gated pipeline, so the tail can trail the live market by up to a week between refreshes. The current reading stitches the live spot when available. This describes position, not a forecast.
Evidence basis · n = 3 cycle tops it was fit to (2013, 2017, 2021)