BTChub · Playbook
DCA & holding
Replay a recurring buy against the real record, next to the honest lump-sum rival — then see how every holding period has turned out.
DCA time machine · draws with JavaScript
What holding did
Every entry day held for 1–8 years. Of 5,936 possible entry days, 92.2% sit in profit today. Modern era (2017+) shown alongside; “worst” is the unluckiest entry.
| Hold | Ended in profit | Median | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1y | 72.3% | +96% | −84% |
| 2y | 84.2% | +270% | −68% |
| 3y | 99.3% | +477% | −35% |
| 4y | 100% | +1.3k% | +32% |
| 5y | 99.8% | +2.5k% | −15% |
| 6y | 100% | +3.2k% | +111% |
| 8y | 100% | +11.4k% | +347% |
All history: every entry day since 2010, including the tiny early years that lift the medians. Toggle to the modern era for the fairer read.
What this does and doesn’t model
- Weekly closes; no fees, spreads or taxes — real results run slightly worse.
- The lump-sum line is the honest rival: same total on day one.
- Entries overlap, so horizons are a few regimes sliced daily, not independent trials. Survivorship is the biggest assumption.
- Backtest, not advice. One past; nothing about the window that starts today.