OPN Intel · Playbook
The DCA time machine
Pick an amount, a cadence, and a starting era, and replay it against the actual record — what you’d have stacked, what it’s worth, the honest lump-sum comparison, and the roughest stretch you’d have had to sit through. Some windows flatter DCA and some don’t; the tool shows whichever is true.
You put in
$12,400
124 buys since 2024-04
You stacked
15,548,201 sats
cost basis $79,752
Worth now
$12,078
as of 2026-08-30
Return
−2.6%
underwater
Lump sum instead
+19.7%
$12,400 on day one → $14,840
Roughest stretch
−33.2%
worst dip of the journey
stack value total put in
Lump sum won this window — a mostly-rising market rewards money in early. DCA's edge shows up in the windows that start at tops. Automate exactly this plan → DCA Butler
What this does and doesn’t model
- Real closes, weekly resolution. Buys land on weekly closing prices from the daily series ("monthly" buys the first week of each calendar month). No fees, spreads, slippage, or taxes are modelled — real results would be slightly worse.
- The lump-sum line is the honest rival. The same total, invested on day one. In mostly-rising windows it usually wins; DCA earns its keep in the windows that start at tops — flip to “Since the 2021 top” and watch the two trade places.
- Backtest, not advice. Every number here is a replay of one asset’s one past. It says nothing about the window that starts today — that’s precisely the part nobody can compute.