OPN Intel · Volatility
How much it swings
Realized volatility — the annualized size of Bitcoin’s daily moves over a trailing window. The 90-day line is the trend; the 30-day is how it feels right now. The long arc bends down: a maturing asset swings less than it used to. It’s a measure of the past, not a prediction of the next move.
30-day (now)
42%
calm for Bitcoin
90-day trend
40%
the smoother read
Lifetime median
59%
typical 30-day level
Vs a stock index
2.6×
~16% for equities
Right now Bitcoin’s 30-day volatility is 42% — below its lifetime median of 59%. Zoom out and the maturation is the real story: the median swing has fallen from 159% in 2011 to 40% in 2025. Still a multiple of a stock index, but a fraction of its younger self.
30-day 90-day trendannualized · capped at 200%
How to read it
- Annualized means scaled to a year’s worth of daily moves, so it’s comparable to how stocks or gold are quoted — not a claim price will move that much in a year.
- A narrowing range, not a clean staircase. The long-run trend is down, but it isn’t monotonic — some later cycles ran hotter than the one before (2013 above 2011, the 2020 COVID break above 2018). What has steadily compressed is the spread: the wild 300%+ spikes of the early years have faded while the quiet-period floors have crept up. Maturation shows as a tighter band, not a lower one at every step.
- Low vol cuts both ways. A calm reading is not a safety guarantee; historically, quiet stretches have preceded both continued grinds and sharp breaks. Position, not prediction.