OPN Intel · Seasonality
Bitcoin monthly returns
Every month of Bitcoin’s life, coloured by how it closed against the month before — green up, red down. Read the columns and a rough calendar emerges: autumns have run hot, late summers cool. It’s a record of what happened, on a small sample — not a claim about any month to come.
−40%+40%colour capped at ±40% · hover any cell for its exact value
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | |
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Typical month · median return 2010–2026
Jan
+5%
Feb
+12%
Mar
−1%
Apr
+10%
May
+7%
Jun
+2%
Jul
+8%
Aug
−9%
Sep
−2%
Oct
+13%
Nov
+10%
Dec
+2%
What the calendar says
- Strongest month: Oct, a median +13% across 16 completed Octs (2010–2025). Autumn (Oct–Nov) has been Bitcoin’s reliably warm stretch.
- Weakest month: Aug, a median −9%. The late-summer lull (Aug–Sep) is the softest patch on the calendar.
- Why median, not average: a handful of early moon-shots — November 2013 returned +451% — drag the mean around. The median is the typical month, and the honest one to quote.
- The caveat that matters: this is 17 years of one asset. Seasonality is a pattern in the rear-view mirror, not a schedule — any single month can and does break it.