Step 3 of the path. Bitcoin is priced in dollars and competes with every other place to put money, so the big tides reach it: what energy costs, what safe money pays, and how strong the dollar is. Here is each one now, and what it means for Bitcoin.
— per MMBtu (million British thermal units)
Gas plants often set the US power price, so gas moves what miners pay for electricity, and with it the cost to mine a coin.
What it means: gas would have to reach about $10.19 before the fuel alone in a modern gas plant cost more than a typical miner can pay for power (at the Oct 18 close).
— 10-year Treasury yield10-year Treasury yieldWhat lending to the US government for ten years pays each year, the benchmark safe return that other assets, bitcoin included, are weighed against.See it on the site →
It is what lending to the US government for ten years pays each year: the benchmark safe return.
What it means: when safe yields rise, holding bitcoin, which pays no interest, costs more in interest given up, and the reverse when they fall. A pull, not a rule.
— broad dollar indexbroad dollar indexThe Federal Reserve's measure of the US dollar against the currencies of the countries the US trades with. Up means a stronger dollar.See it on the site →, change over a month
It measures the dollar against the currencies of the countries the US trades with (Federal Reserve).
What it means: a stronger dollar usually means tighter money worldwide, and bitcoin has tended to do better when the dollar weakens. A pull, not a rule.
Sources: EIA Henry Hub spot price; FRED DGS10 and DTWEXBGS. Each is published with a lag of a day or more; the date is shown.
The Monday 8-K cadence is now a schedule worth checking: a 3rd consecutive weekly sale would confirm a standing program, and a pause would suggest the par defense worked.
from Strategy Sold Bitcoin at a Loss for a 2nd Straight Week. Look at Who Gets Paid First →Lit lines are this topic's links. Pick another topic to compare.
what the lit lines mean
The hub: where Bitcoin's price sits against its own trend and history.
The four-year issuance clock, drawdowns and what holding through them looked like.
The machines securing the chain: how much computing they run, how hard mining is, and what they earn.
The bridge: the electricity behind mining, and the oil, gas and power shocks that tie Bitcoin to macro.
Conflicts, sanctions and state moves that spill into money and energy.
Laws, regulators and strategic-reserve bills, country by country and state by state.
Rates, the dollar, inflation and liquidity: the tide every asset swims in.